Why it’s ok (for now) Hillary hasn’t officially decided to run

By YeOldeScribe ~ September 20th, 2014 @ 2:13 pm

Two of the more common questions our writer gets asked are “Will Hillary run for president,” or “Why hasn’t Hillary declared she’s running yet?”

Let’s answer that first question right away: we fully anticipate that Ms. Clinton will run in 2016. If she didn’t, it would be the biggest political shock since Eric Cantor lost his primary to a Tea Party candidate who couldn’t answer basic foreign policy questions after running a campaign on being an enlightened professor. (Side note: We’re in deep trouble when Eric Cantor loses an election when his opposition convinces the public he’s not conservative enough.)

She’s also already given plenty of indication that she’s going to run:

Answering that second question is a little tougher. People are quick to point out that there are advantages to announcing a candidacy early. Gathering momentum can be one of them. But if there’s one thing the Clintons are great at, it’s campaigning. We don’t think Hillary really needs to worry about gathering momentum right now because she’ll be able to do it quickly whenever she announces. One of the other advantages is fundraising, which she absolutely doesn’t need to worry about. Not only is the family wealthy, there are already PAC’s formed which are gathering money in anticipation of her expected announcement.

While there are benefits to announcing early, Hillary really doesn’t need them. But the drawbacks could really hurt her.

The biggest problem with announcing now would be that mid-term elections are coming up. Mid-terms are notoriously bad for the party which holds the White House, and that obviously means bad news for Democrats. If Hillary decides to run now, the Democratic failures in the mid-term would be tied to her like a millstone around the neck. So there’s good reason for her to wait until after mid-terms at the earliest, but most likely early next year.

Also, just as announcing early can give you momentum, it can just as easily be taken away. By delaying her announcement, Hillary is reducing the chance of a Democratic blunder or scandal halting her dead in her tracks.

Finally, we don’t really understand why people expect her to have announced her candidacy already when no one else has. Why aren’t people demanding the same thing from any of the Republican candidates? Especially in Wisconsin, where Gov. Scott Walker is running for re-election and would have to abandon his post should he win the presidency, people should know now whether or not he’s running before they vote for him. But he’s already said that won’t happen.

The bottom line is there aren’t any good reasons for Hillary to announce a candidacy for the office of president, but there are a plethora of reasons for her not to do it. So we’ll wait in eager anticipation for her to make the run official. But we’re not going to hold our breath that it’ll happen in 2014.

Now if it’s the latter half of 2015 and we still haven’t heard anything, then you can start asking questions. Until then, you’re in the same boat as the rest of us.

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